3 Threats to Google world domination (seriously)

When somebody uses the words "Google" and "threat" in the same sentence, they are usually talking about the Internet behemoth's latest victim. But how the mighty have fallen in the past: IBM, Worldcom and Lehman Brothers are the first to come to mind. Google is the brightest star in the new economy, but no marketplace remains static, so what will happen when the next revolution comes? Small companies can easily avoid icebergs, but Google is no longer being run out of Sergey's basement. I can't think of many billion-dollar corporations that handle major change well. So here is my opinion on the three greatest threats to Google's continuing success:


Threat  #1: New Search Engines
Quick, name a search engine other than Google. Most people need to think before they answer that question, and many cannot answer it at all. This is because Google has literally become synonymous with Internet search. How do you compete with a challenger like that? It may take a billion dollars in advertising and promotion, but it can be done. Or at least Microsoft thinks so, and their recent advertising blitz for Bing has made it the 23rd most-visited site on the Internet (Google is #1). When is the last time you saw a TV commercial for a search engine? The most recent research I could find gives Bing over 10% of American searches (over 16% if you count every Microsoft search engine), putting them in distant third to Google and Yahoo, but well ahead of also-rans like Ask.com and AOL.


Threat #2: Don't Be Evil?
One of things about Google that people can relate to is that they basically seems like a pretty nice bunch of guys. Employees get free lunch and the company motto is "Don't Be Evil." What's not to love about them? That depends on who you ask. A Chinese dissident, for example, might think otherwise. Google recently blinked in the face of the Chinese government and restored google.cn, complete with censorship of anti-Chinese web pages. Good news for Chinese people who want to search for Lady Gaga, bad news for free speech. Is censoring anti-government sentiment evil? Let's just say Google should start working on a new motto. Once people realize that Google is "human" like the rest of us, they will lose their good-guy status, and a couple billion dollars worth of good will.


Threat #3: Lack of Focus (and too much focus)
Google has thousands of online services, but how many of them actually make money? So far, probably only the ones that are integrated into their advertising platform, like Google Maps. Google is all over the map (pun intended) when it comes to app development, evidenced by the fact that they proudly report that their engineers may -- no, must -- use 20% of work time developing personal projects into Google products. Is it possible to have too much innovation? Possibly, if most of your projects are wildly popular money pits, supported by a single revenue stream. This is what I mean about focus: Google has too little focus in app development, but a laser-like focus in revenue generation. The only exception seems to be Google Apps, which only recently became profitable, and still contributes relatively little to the bottom line. So far it is used mainly for email, and if email hosting is their best attempt at diversification, they may need to go back to the idea jar.